A situation with scaling down of 2015 rapeseed harvest is observed both throughout Europe and in other producer countries. The 2014 index is unreachable this year.
Rapeseed is one of the oldest grains cultivated in the world. Since ancient times and till nineteenth century rapeseed oil was used for lightening purposes mainly and nowadays it has obtained a vital importance in agricultural sector and became one of the most valued vegetable oils for human consumption. The oil percentage in rapeseed is estimated to be around 43%. It is also a great source of protein, which makes it appropriate addition for cattle feeding. Rapeseed contains a vast amount of Omega 3 and Omega 6 acids. Currently rapeseed oil is obtaining a growing popularity on the food markets and has already partly substituted olive and sunflower oil in food cooking.
The European Union is one of the most large-scale rapeseed producers. The amounts of production have been increasing year on year and almost reached 25 million tons in 2014. Earlier the rapeseed production met the markets demands and therefore its prices remained sustainable. But now the oilseed sector seems to be switching to cheaper grains like soybean and palm oils, scaling down the demand for rapeseed as well as its prices.
In 2014 many farmers, mainly in France and Germany, announced the rapeseed sowing areas to be cut because of the low prices and thus low profitability. According to Paris-based analyst group, such a strategy may appear to be a supportive factor for rapeseed prices the following year.
2015 rapeseed harvest has been influenced by unfavourable weather. Spring and summer dry weather scaled down the anticipated harvest levels. In Germany they awaited a relatively good harvest, though lower than the previous year, about 5.2 million tons. In the United Kingdom dry weather affected majority of crops except of rapeseed and the yield is forecasted to be 2.2 million tons, as compared to 2.5 million in 2014.
This scaling down of rapeseed harvest may lead to increasing import needs. But this may also occur to be a challenging task as in other producing countries the very alike situation is observed. In Ukraine, for example, the similar dry weather conditions lowered this year yields and also imperilled the sowing process of winter rapeseed. According to the latest data, so far the sowing area is 40% less than it was previously planned. And this is quite a serious index, which may be a matter of concern. The International Grains Council makes a forecast of loses up to one-third of total yields.
The situation in Canada is a little bit different. The yield figures and stocks are better than forecasted, but still there is a harvest cut by 2.6 million, as compared to previous year. Many consumers replace rapeseed oil with soybean, though current prices of rapeseed are still relatively low.
To conclude, the harvest situation is still in progress, but current figures promise to have an influence on rapeseed prices globally. On one hand, the perspective of increasing demands in 2015/2016 is likely to boost prices of rapeseed as well. But on the other, raising interest for other oilseeds and for soybeans may also have an influence on the market situation. This will be clear in time.
International Grains Council is an international organization, established in 1949, which aimed to distribute wheat in case of necessity to improve the economic situation of war-ravaged countries. Nowadays they have also included rise and oilseeds into commodities covered. As of 2013, the members of the organization are the following countries: Argentina, Australia, Canada, Egypt, European Union, Japan, South Korea, Morocco, Norway, Pakistan, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United States and Vatican City State and others.
