Summer droughts may threaten the next year rapeseed yield, which may give its prices additional support.
Rapeseed harvest dynamics
In 2015 rapeseed harvest in Ukraine was lower than in 2014. In 2015 the rapeseed plantations occupied 685,000 hectares, compared to 865,000 in 2014 because of unfavourable weather during seeding process. Bad weather conditions in summer affected not only current year yields, but also can pose a threat to those of 2016.
The moisture amounts in grounds for winter rapeseed are formed during the summer. Insufficient number of rain in July and August in Ukraine resulted in low moisture contents in soil. This may imperil the total rapeseed harvest in 2016, as sowing period is the most crucial factor for obtaining good crops, especially, when it concerns winter seeds.
Rapeseed low seeding pace
Unfavourable weather conditions delayed the rapeseed planting, so the seeding pace this year is the lowest since 2007. Therefore, if it does not rain and the sowing pace doesn't exceed, the territory of rapeseed fields will be remarkably decreased. For 2016 harvest anticipations are to be higher, a week of rains is required to boost soil moisture and to increase the pace of sowing.
Minister's arguments
On Tuesday, September 15th, Oleksiy Pavlenko,the agriculture minister of Ukraine, spoke out on the question. He said that dry weather has significantly curbed rapeseed sowing in Ukraine, decreasing the plantation area by 40 percent, compared to the areas intended. Mr Pavlenko announced the sowing process to be quite difficult because of droughts in several regions of Ukraine. The plans of sowing 823,000 hectares are reduced to about 494,000 hectares. Other crops are out of danger, though.
USDA forecast
Ukraine is the sixth largest rapeseed producer and the third largest exporter in the world. In terms of 2015/2016 Ukrainian rapeseed harvest, USDA anticipates it to reach the level of 1.7 million tons. The exports may reach 1.4 million tons, down 30 percent year on year. If such a situation remains in Ukraine, rapeseed exports are likely to fall further. Still, low winter harvest may favour domestic and export prices for rapeseed and its derived products.
Reference information
USDA (United states Department of Agriculture) – US federal department, which is in charge of agriculture, food, natural recourses and farming.
