Bloomberg New Energy Finance Agency (BNEF) has released a forecast according to which the world's energy generation capacity, operating due to renewable energy sources, will increase by at least twice within the next 25 years, but the carbon dioxide atmospheric concentration will remain at the same level.
In addition, the study authors claim that alternative energy will no longer need state support from 2018, in particular, under the US Government's Alternative Energy Development Plan. In spite of this, the US energy market will undergo major changes within five years, during which the power stations number using both energy, gas and coal will be significantly reduced.
At the same time, the volume of new investments in the energy generating infrastructure development will reach 12.2 trillion dollars by 2040. Most of these funds (about 80%) will be directed to projects in the world’s developing countries. The alternative energy share will be about two-thirds of the invested funds total amount.
We note that the study authors predict a declining share of hydrocarbon energy sources to 44% by 2040 with simultaneous increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions, which will be up to 13%.
Michael Liebreich, the BNEF Supervisory Board member, said that despite the tremendous progress in the alternative energy development, coal use will occupy core place in the global energy industry and carbon dioxide emissions will only grow unless radical measures can prevent this fact. Emissions are expected to reach its peak by 2029, despite the fact that many countries will increase their solar power capacity twice by this time.
The BNEF analysts pay special attention to the alleged merger between the Royal Dutch Shell PLC and the BG Group announced in April this year and expected in the next one. This $ 70 billion deal must merge the two largest global liquefied gas producers and has already received prior approval from the US Federal Trade Commission. Upon its completion, the global market will receive around 1,400 gigawatts of power utilizing natural gas.
This will enable emerging economies to meet their electricity needs by building capacities three times more than in developed economies. In particular, only China will invest 3.3 billion dollars in energy by 2040, which is twice as high as in the United States.
At the same time, experiencing energy hunger countries will equally develop solar energy and coal use trying to strike a balance between the cheap local resources use and strict environmental legislation violations.
As Seb Henbest, the study co-author, concludes, even with the current state of affairs, atmospheric carbon dioxide will reach 450 ppm by 2035, that is, 450 molecules of CO2 per million molecules in the air. Thus, it can be assumed that the global community is unlikely to achieve its climate conservation goals.
