The latest data analysis showed the rising demand for oil in biggest consumer-countries worldwide during the last half of the year. A noticeable leap in oil prices is observed now; the WTI surpassed a $49 point as for October, 7.
On Thursday, October 1, the Joint Oil Data Initiative (JODI) released their latest report on oil demand. It suggests that oil demand has increased in the last half of the year, compared to the corresponded period in 2014. The report represents data from fifty-one leading consumer countries, which submitted their repots to the JODI. But some important oil trading countries, such as Russia, Iran, Indonesia, Venezuela, United Arab Emirates and several others, didn't provide the JODI with necessary information, and, thus, weren't included into the total results. But still these numbers account to around 75-80 percent of global oil consumption and are sufficiently reliable.
The conclusions of the report are the following: the average amount of oil consumption assessed to be 74.4 million barrels per day (bpd) during the period of first 6 months of 2015, in comparison to 69.1 million bpd in the 2014. The numbers suggest a 3.3 percent increase.
The United States, Turkey, India and other countries have shown a firm demand growth by more than 100 000 barrels per day. Reports of the other countries under consideration provide the data of oil demand boosting by between 20 and 40 thousand bpd. In total account we may see a worldwide tendency of increasing demand, as 46 out of 59 countries reported of higher consumption levels, compared to 2014.
But the indisputable leader in oil consumption now is China. With its reported growth by 13 percent, it has contributed about a half of the world's consumption growth. But these numbers are questioned and its national estimates are said to be exaggerated to some extent. Therefore an assumption about China's accumulating crude in the country's strategic stockpiles was made. Without China's contribution the total oil demand growth is about by 1 million barrels per day, or about 1.7 percent.
According to the IEA, recent pace of oil demand boosting is the fastest in the last five years.
Oil prices started boosting on the very day the JODIs report was published and less than in a week they increased by around $3. The current price is $49 and some change and it seems to continue to go up.
The geopolitical factor of oil prices building should also be mentioned. The United States-Syria-Russia relations make the market carefully look after the situation. And while the issue mentioned doesn't seem to have a great influence on prices, the statement of Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak gives oil prices another boost. He suggested that Russia may supposedly take part in the OPEC meeting to discuss the current market situation. It would be the first time when Russia attends OPEC discussions, as earlier it failed to cooperate with other oil producing countries. But now, when unstable oil situation affects Russian economy, they are quite eager to participate in the process.
However, the growth of prices has partly been limited by new economic data on Asia markets, suggesting manufacturing contracting in China.
The current oil winning strikes are likely to boost the price up to $50 soon. But for how long the rising will be observed is unknown. If the prices are boosting for sufficient period of time, it is likely to influence the demand for other fuels, such as natural gas and biomass.
Joint Organization Data Initiative (JODI) is a cooperative project of six international organizations, involved in oil trading business. The initiative is aimed at assessing the oil data situation in the key countries.
International Energy Agency (IEA) is an international organization established in 1974, based in Paris. It leads statistical evaluation of oil markets and provides advisory policy for its 29 member states.
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is an international organization, founded in 1960 it marked a new period of independent oil trading. The organization is aimed at ensuring stable oil and petroleum markets in order to provide efficient and regular supplies to customers. Currently there are 12 member states in OPEC.
