According to experts' forecast, the share of coal in the Polish energy sector will gradually decline, however within the following few years coal will still be the main source of energy. Moreover, the prices for this fuel will continue to grow, thus Poland will have to develop alternative energy sector.
It is expected that over the next 15-20 years the share of coal in the Polish power industry will be reduced from 90 to 70-80 percent. However, according to Lukas Tshpilya, the head of the Energy Department in Polish Bank DnB NORD, such changes primarily depend on how effectively the existing coal generating plants (which until then were supposed to be closed) will be upgraded.
As the expert said, this decision will allow to reduce the costs in the long term, as the new power plants will be more efficient. Thus fuel costs as well as carbon dioxide emissions will decrease.
However, it is rather risky to rely on fossil coal only, as this natural resource is global. If we consider the level of energy consumption (particularly electricity) in the world, we will see that this trend is always upward.
According to analysts of the International Energy Agency, by 2035 the global energy demand will increase by 40 percent, this means that the average annual growth rate will reach 1.3 percent. Prior to that year, fossil fuels (oil, gas and coal) will remain the main sources of energy. Demand for oil and coal will continue to grow slowly - at the rate of less than 1 percent a year. This will be mainly connected with the increase in the consumption by Asian countries which mainly use coal in their energy sector. Such situation will definitely affect the Polish mining industry.
If we consider how the prices of coal change within the last 12 years, we will see that in 2001 the cost of coal was 20-40 dollars per ton. To date, this rate ranges from 50 to 60 dollars per ton. However, there were the periods when the price of coal was significantly higher, in 2008-2009 (during the banking speculation) that figure was 150-200 dollars per ton. According to Sergei Kozlov, the leading analyst of Ukrainian Biofuel Portal pellets-wood.com , there is a big probability that in the future such coal prices will be relevant again.
The rise in coal prices will undoubtedly cause the increase in electricity prices. Today the price of coal is quite low, as the global economy is stagnant, and the consumption of electricity in some areas does not increase but on the contrary declines. As a result, these days the demand for coal is reduced.
Nevertheless, such trend is not long term. There is a good chance that in the future the price of coal will rise and this problem will have to be solved by diversification of energy resources. Hence, according to experts, there is the need to amend the goals which in 2010 were formulated in the document "Energy policy of Poland until 2030". First of all, the issue is to create optimal conditions for shale gas exploration and exploitation as well as the development of renewable energy sources.
